[lurker]

cough-cough

Originally Posted by lurker

An early spring rain over the show covered Arkansas river drainage could devastate this area.

Originally Posted by lurker

The majority of the highlighted area in Colorado drains through Dodge City. There was an abundance of snowfall this month that can rapidly melt via a rain event.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/abrfc/pub...aphs/abrfc.jpg

A good bookmark: Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service: Dodge City: Arkansas River at Dodge City

and

Although there have been predictions of significant flooding of the Arkansas River when this winter's snowfalls melt in the spring, Dodge City residents can breathe a sigh of relief. National Weather Service Hydrologist Rick Sloan said that significant flooding is highly unlikely.

"I want to assure Dodge City area residents there is virtually zero chance spring melting of the snowpack will cause significant flooding," said Sloan.

NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic and Remote Sensing Center in Minneapolis, Minn. took aerial measurements of the moisture from the snow and ice storms in December and January. Sloan said the measurements show that "areas of southeast Colorado along the Arkansas River between John Martin Reservoir and the Kansas state line may contain upwards of 300,000 to 400,000 acre-feet of water in the ice/snowpack."

Although that amount of moisture may seem like it could cause substantial flooding, the droughts in recent years would absorb much of the moisture.

"An Arkansas River flood of 1965 proportions would be possible only if all that accumulated moisture was released in a 24-hour period," said Sloan.

He said John Martin Reservoir is capable of storing the runoff in the spring. Basins below the John Martin Reservoir may see several weeks of runoff which would increase the water flows near the Kansas-Colorado border.

"Additional rains through the spring would cause runoff, but not to the extent to cause catastrophic flooding," said Sloan. "Only a repeat of the torrential rains of spring 1965 would be likely to cause similar flow and flood levels."

The Dodge City branch of the National Weather Service will issue Spring Flood Outlooks for southwest Kansas on Feb. 23 and March 9. Public and area emergency management services will be updated periodically of Arkansas River conditions throughout the year.

First of all, "a repeat of the torrential rains of (the) spring (of) 1965 would" cause a similar flood WITHOUT the ~400,000 acre-feet of (snow) moisture.

For the sake of comparative, Kansas successfully argued that Colorado withheld 428,005 acre-feet of water from Kansas during a span of 47 YEARS (1950-1996). That's not a small amount. If that much water were to approach Dodge City in a one mile wide wave that was 20 feet tall, it would be more than 31 miles long. Mr Sloan states that this much water lays on the ground as snow BELOW John Martin but 'above' the state line.

Mother Nature can produce early and warm rains that can easily melt that snow within a matter of hours.