Surprise, Surprise, People are Not Shopping in Dodge City

[Value Pack]

By MIKE CORN

Hays Daily News

Ellis County has been dethroned as having the most vibrant retail trade area in the state.

But not by much, and it remains a force to be reckoned with in the retail trade arena, still registering as the second strongest in the state.

Only Pottawatomie County had a slightly stronger ranking, and to do that it had to borrow from Manhattan, most of which is in an adjoining county.

In addition to the strong showing by Ellis County, the northwest counties of Thomas and Ness had pull factors strong enough to put them in third and fourth places, respectively.

Mike Michaelis, executive director of the Ellis County Coalition for Economic Development, hailed the accomplishment.

"I think that's still good news," Michaelis said of Ellis County's place in the rankings. "As long as we're in the top 5, I'm thrilled."

Plus, said economist David Darling, Ellis County's performance over the past year has beat out that of the state overall. Darling, Manhattan, is the former Kansas State University professor who initiated the pull factor series.

"Pretty nice," Michaelis said of having three northwest Kansas counties in the top 10. "Pretty darn nice."

When Darling retired two years ago, it was thought that his successor might take up the task of compiling the pull factor data, which determines -- based on sales tax collections and population figures -- what the economic strength of a county and city might be.

That hasn't happened, and the Kansas Department of Revenue decided on its own to issue the reports. But preparing those numbers has been something of a lower priority for the department.

Darling has since resumed his consulting work, using the data from the revenue department.

"I'm playing around with the numbers," Darling said when contacted about the fiscal year 2007 figures.

Those numbers show that Ellis County had a pull factor of 1.51, reflecting that it serves a net population of 40,219 people.

"That's the latest news," Darling said.

In fiscal year 2006, Ellis County had a pull factor of 1.5 -- a fraction of a percent higher than Pottawatomie's. Ellis County, in the last fiscal year, effectively served a population amounting to 39,618 people.

Thomas County had a pull factor of 1.4 with Ness County close behind with a pull factor of 1.35.

Colby, in Thomas County, has been growing recently and is poised to witness construction of a new truck stop, motel and implement dealership in the community.

Ness City has been buoyed by the boom in the oil patch, primarily because it serves as a hub for regional oil company suppliers and service providers.

For Darling, what's especially impressive for Ellis County is that its performance -- in terms of sales tax collections -- increased 4.32 percent between fiscal years 2007 and 2006.

Statewide, sales tax collections only increased 3.51 percent, meaning Ellis County outperformed the state in terms of retail trade.

"Really, we've got a great thing going," Michaelis said.

Oil prices are high, he said, as are commodity prices.

"Nobody ever would have thought of $12 wheat," he said.

And Michaelis said Ellis County's economy is more diversified, far different than it was in the 1980s, when Travenol closed, virtually bringing the economy to its knees.

Today, he said, companies in and around Hays are making pipe, airplanes, furniture and scaffolding, and construction is still strong.

"Obviously, there are weak points in the economy," Michaelis acknowledged, "but not to the point of the rest of the nation or the state."

Ellis County employers still need people to fill vacant jobs, he noted.

For Darling, the numbers are a strong sign of how mining, agriculture and manufacturing -- the elements that make up the state's backbone -- have rebounded.

Rounding out the top 10, Darling said, are Johnson County with a pull factor of 1.35; Saline County, with 1.32; Pratt with 1.28; Seward with 1.19; Sedgwick with 1.17; and Barton County with 1.15.

Although not in the top 10, Sherman County had a pull factor of 1.14, Trego and Gove counties had relatively strong showings of .92.

"Those are pretty good numbers for those two," Darling said.

Ford County, home to Dodge City, only had a pull factor of .96.

"That's actually a problem number," Darling noted because it means Ford County residents are going elsewhere to shop. (or maybe its all going to the post office in money orders that are then moving way south)

Finney County had a positive figure, with 1.05.

But Norton County only had a pull factor of .76.

Russell County had a pull factor of .9, a relatively good number, Darling said.

A year earlier, its pull factor was .88.


What is it?

Pull factor is a measurement that attempts to determine if people are shopping at home, if a retail area is drawing shoppers from outside the county and whether shoppers instead are spending their money elsewhere, said Mike Michaelis of the Ellis County Coalition for Economic Development.

"If everybody in your county spent all their money in your county, and if no one came in from the outside, your pull factor would be 1," he said.

A pull factor of 1.20, for example, is comparable, he said, to 120 percent of a county's population spending all of their money in-county; a pull factor of 0.75 means just 75 percent of those dollars are being spent in-county.


Special-projects coordinator Mike Corn can be reached at (785) 628-1081, Ext. 129, or by e-mail at mcorn@dailynews.net.

[TexKan]

If .9 is a good number - it looks like .96 is even better. It looked like the .04 went to Finney cuase they had 1.05 - they must be pulling .04 from Ford and .01 from somewhere else. I don't know but by the numbers it looks like most the folks stay at WM in Dodge when you are looking at Ford county. I'm sure the goal is to have a "pull" higher than one cause if you do, then you are "pulling" from another county. I never drove to Garden to shop - it had to be in a planned trip. I would imagine with the price of gas that the "pull" numbers will get better tho.

[CRAZY HORSE]

Just

[CRAZY HORSE]

Just Visited With An Out-of-countyer Who Had Purchased A New Vehicle In Dodge. He Was Impressed (unfavorably) With The Sales Tax Here. Hopes He Had Enough Cash To Make It Home

[Value Pack]

He may of got off easy as long as he does not tag it in Ford County at 72% higher than Finney County.