It is a serious note Aft. First, here’s a link to the delegate counts.
RealClearPolitics - 2008 Elections - Democratic Delegate Count
Obama is only up by 111 and Hill is down by 222 with 103 SDs uncommitted. She only needs to swing about 225 into her corner to take it away. You know the party insiders are watching his drop in the polls and the constant amateur mistakes like the upside down flag on the credentials.
Obama’s flip on public financing put more stress on donors and is viewed by many as sucking money away from lower level Democrats running Congressional races. Those politicians are also super delegates with votes. Running roughshod over the folks that you need is never a good idea.
Currently 25% of Democrats polled are still uncommitted. That’s a sizeable chunk of the base that any candidate can’t afford to lose. Sure, he has signed up lots of new, young voters but election followers know that the youth vote is unreliable in November. Obama is becoming a greater risk everyday to a party that desperately wants a win in November. Savvy Democrats know that simply attacking McCain ain’t going to cut it.
Here’s the dilemma for the SDs. Nominate Obama and drive moderate Dems over to a Republican that can no way be painted as a far right extremist, or nominate Hillary and risk all of those youthful new voters to become disenchanted with the system and stay home in November. It’s anyone’s guess what might go down a week from now, but if there was any betting going on I’d keep my money in my pocket.